Philadelphia gets the edge in a close game because the model is slightly on the Phillies, and Atlanta’s bullpen appears more taxed than usual despite the stronger home record. Both starters project more like average arms than difference-makers, so the combination of recent form, road efficiency, and late-inning relief pressure points to a modest Phillies win in a game that stays around league-average scoring. What could go wrong is Atlanta’s home offense clicking early enough to force the Braves into a lead they can protect with their solid overall staff.