Friday, May 15, 2026
15 games on the board. 15 AI predictions locked in.
Highest confidence picks with full AI reasoning
Phoenix Arizona Diamondbacks
SP: Merrill Kelly
-120
AI Prediction
Denver Colorado Rockies
SP: Kyle Freeland
+102
Colorado gets the home field advantage at Coors Field, one of the most extreme hitter-friendly parks in baseball, which inflates run totals and historically benefits the home team who is acclimated to altitude. The Rockies hold a slight edge with a fresher schedule (5 days rest vs. 2 for ARI) and their bullpen has logged more high-leverage innings recently but remains competitive at Coors. Arizona's significant injury list, including Corbin Burnes, Jordan Lawlar, and multiple bullpen arms, depletes their depth and limits their ability to hold leads in a high-scoring environment.
Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers
-102
AI Prediction
UNDER 8.5
Minneapolis Minnesota Twins
SP: Joe Ryan
-116
Milwaukee holds a significant ELO advantage (1570 vs 1448, a 122-point gap implying only a 36% home win probability for Minnesota) and has been far superior across the board, with a +54 run differential compared to Minnesota's -13. The Brewers' elite bullpen ERA (3.90) stacks up favorably against Minnesota's struggling relievers (6.51 ERA, 1.91 WHIP), which is critical given both starters are at default PPI values. Minnesota's momentum score is deeply negative (-30) with only 2.90 average runs scored in their last 10 games, while Milwaukee's offense has averaged 4.60 runs over that same stretch.
San Diego San Diego Padres
SP: Randy Vásquez
+118
AI Prediction
UNDER 7.5
Seattle Seattle Mariners
SP: Emerson Hancock
-138
Seattle gets the nod at home where they hold a dominant 11-3 H2H advantage over San Diego in the last three years, and T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly environment (0.92x runs) should keep this a low-scoring affair. Emerson Hancock showed a favorable 3.00 ERA against San Diego this season in his prior start, while Randy Vásquez struggled badly at Seattle with a 9.00 ERA in 4.0 IP back in April. San Diego's bullpen is also taxed with a stress score of 9.4 over the last three days, which could be decisive in a close game.
Games where Diamond AI diverges ≥7% from Vegas — the money metric
Milwaukee holds a significant ELO advantage (1570 vs 1448, a 122-point gap implying only a 36% home win probability for Minnesota) and has been far superior across the board, with a +54 run differenti
Despite Tampa Bay's strong home record and ELO advantage, the statistical model favors Miami at 56% confidence, driven by the Rays' struggling starter Jesse Scholtens (5 ER in his last outing vs CIN,
Washington holds a significant ELO advantage (1518.95 vs 1454.07, implying 62.5% home win probability) and carries better momentum with a W2 streak and a strong 6-4 last 10 games, while Baltimore is s
The White Sox ride a 4-game win streak and home advantage at Rate Field, a slight pitcher-friendly park, to edge the Cubs in a close crosstown rivalry game. Chicago's bullpen stress is notably higher
Despite Atlanta's dominant 30-13 record and strong ELO advantage, the statistical model narrowly favors Boston at 50.8%, likely driven by ATL's heavily taxed bullpen (high-stress score of 9.2 after 9.
The Dodgers hold a significant ELO advantage (1554.81 vs 1401.70) and a superior run differential (+63 vs -32), reflecting a fundamentally better roster on both sides of the ball. Kochanowicz was shel
Pittsburgh holds a significant ELO advantage (51.7 points) and plays in a pitcher-friendly park at PNC, where the 0.96x run factor slightly suppresses scoring. Braxton Ashcraft has been excellent in h
Oakland holds a meaningful ELO advantage (52+ points) over a struggling Giants squad with a poor run differential (-42) and a weak .656 OPS on offense. Sutter Health Park's pitcher-friendly environmen
All games ranked by confidence
Randy Vásquez
UNDER 7.5
Emerson Hancock
Edward Cabrera
OVER 8.0
Sean Burke
Cam Schlittler
OVER 7.5
Clay Holmes
Connelly Early
UNDER 8.0
Spencer Strider
Jack Leiter
OVER 8.5
Spencer Arrighetti
Blake Snell
UNDER 9.0
Jack Kochanowicz
Aaron Nola
UNDER 8.0
Braxton Ashcraft
Tyler Mahle
UNDER 9.5
Aaron Civale
Games where the AI picks the underdog
AI likes COL (+102) as the underdog
AI likes MIL (-102) as the underdog
AI likes MIA (-102) as the underdog
AI likes KC (-106) as the underdog
AI likes WSH (+122) as the underdog
AI likes CWS (+124) as the underdog
AI likes BOS (+130) as the underdog
Games most affected by IL absences
ARI Injuries
COL Injuries
MIL Injuries
MIN Injuries
SD Injuries
SEA Injuries
TOR Injuries
DET Injuries
MIA Injuries
TB Injuries
KC Injuries
STL Injuries
BAL Injuries
WSH Injuries
CIN Injuries
CLE Injuries
CHC Injuries
CWS Injuries
NYY Injuries
NYM Injuries
BOS Injuries
ATL Injuries
TEX Injuries
HOU Injuries
LAD Injuries
LAA Injuries
PHI Injuries
PIT Injuries
SF Injuries
OAK Injuries
Thursday, May 14
64% accuracy
Pred: 3-5
63.0%
Pred: 3-5
62.0%
Pred: 3-5
62.0%
Pred: 3-5
61.0%
Pred: 3-5
57.0%
Pred: 3-5
57.0%
Pred: 5-3
54.0%
Pred: 3-5
53.0%
Pred: 3-5
53.0%
Pred: 3-4
52.0%
Pred: 5-3
52.0%
Claude API key was down Apr 8–10 — these are retroactive picks for curiosity only
58% (leaked)
⚠Temporally leaked: When generating these picks, Claude saw team stats, H2H, and last-10 data that include games played AFTER the target date. This is NOT a real accuracy signal — do not compare to live accuracy. Shown here so the dashboard has data to display for Apr 8–10.
Pred: 4-6
75.0%
Pred: 3-6
67.0%
Pred: 1-3
65.0%
Pred: 3-5
63.0%
Pred: 3-6
62.0%
Pred: 5-3
60.0%
Pred: 3-5
60.0%
Pred: 3-5
58.0%
Pred: 3-5
58.0%
Pred: 3-5
55.0%
Pred: 3-5
55.0%
Pred: 3-5
52.0%
Pred: 5-3
51.0%
Pred: 5-3
49.0%
Pred: 4-2
46.0%
Pred: 3-5
75.0%
Pred: 3-6
67.0%
Pred: 3-5
65.0%
Pred: 1-3
64.0%
Pred: 3-6
64.0%
Pred: 2-5
61.0%
Pred: 4-6
60.0%
Pred: 4-6
59.0%
Pred: 2-4
57.0%
Pred: 2-4
57.0%
Pred: 5-3
57.0%
Pred: 3-5
56.0%
Pred: 2-4
55.0%
Pred: 3-5
55.0%
Pred: 4-2
46.0%
Pred: 2-4
66.0%
Pred: 5-3
65.0%
Pred: 3-5
64.0%
Pred: 3-5
62.0%
Pred: 2-4
59.0%
Pred: 3-5
50.0%
Pred: 3-5
66.0%
Pred: 5-3
65.0%
Pred: 7-3
59.0%
Pred: 3-5
58.0%
Pred: 5-3
57.0%
Pred: 6-3
57.0%
Pred: 3-4
56.0%
Pred: 5-3
53.0%
Pred: 2-4
53.0%
Pred: 3-5
53.0%
Pred: 5-7
50.0%
Pred: 2-4
50.0%
Pred: 3-5
50.0%
Pred: 4-5
49.0%
Pred: 3-5
48.0%
Pred: 3-6
75.0%
Pred: 5-3
69.0%
Pred: 3-5
68.0%
Pred: 3-6
68.0%
Pred: 6-3
66.0%
Pred: 4-6
65.0%
Pred: 3-5
61.0%
Pred: 6-4
56.0%
Pred: 6-4
54.0%
Pred: 6-4
54.0%
Pred: 3-5
54.0%
Pred: 3-5
51.0%
Pred: 3-6
75.0%
Pred: 2-5
72.0%
Pred: 5-3
69.0%
Pred: 3-6
68.0%
Pred: 3-6
68.0%
Pred: 5-2
68.0%
Pred: 6-3
66.0%
Pred: 3-5
65.0%
Pred: 3-5
63.0%
Pred: 2-4
61.0%
Pred: 7-5
56.0%
Pred: 6-4
54.0%
Pred: 5-3
54.0%
Pred: 3-5
54.0%
Pred: 3-5
51.0%
Pred: 3-6
75.0%
Pred: 3-5
72.0%
Pred: 5-2
68.0%
Pred: 2-4
63.0%
Pred: 3-5
61.0%
Pred: 6-4
56.0%
Pred: 5-3
54.0%
Pred: 3-5
54.0%
Pred: 2-5
72.0%
Pred: 5-3
69.0%
Pred: 3-6
68.0%
Pred: 3-6
68.0%
Pred: 6-3
66.0%
Pred: 3-6
65.0%
Pred: 3-5
63.0%
Pred: 5-3
56.0%
Pred: 6-4
54.0%
Pred: 3-5
54.0%
Pred: 3-5
51.0%