Model v2.1Accuracy: 51.1% (1276 live)Brier: 0.2492✓ Validated51.1% on 1276
Today: 4 picksAPI

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today's Slate

4 games on the board. 4 AI predictions locked in.

3 Top Picks
1 Weather Watch

Games to Watch

Highest confidence picks with full AI reasoning

Medium 4:00 PM CT
Full Analysis →
CWS

Chicago Chicago White Sox

SP: Hagen Smith

5 - 3

AI Prediction

53.0%
HOU

Houston Houston Astros

SP: AJ Blubaugh

89°F Wind: 10 mph SE Rain

Chicago’s edge comes from the stronger recent form, slightly better season run differential, and the more reliable run prevention profile, while Houston’s bullpen looks taxed and its pitching setup is less certain. Daikin Park is neutral, so the game should stay fairly moderate in scoring, but the White Sox have the better chance to convert a few extra late-inning chances. What could swing it back is Houston’s home offense waking up early and forcing Chicago into a longer bullpen game.

White Sox recent form and overall run differential
CWS Jordan Leasure (P) - 60 day IL CWS Mike Vasil (P) - 60 day IL CWS Prelander Berroa (P) - 60 day IL CWS Luis Castillo (P) - 15 day IL CWS Brooks Baldwin (2B) - 60 day IL CWS Brooks Baldwin (2B) - 60 day IL CWS Tanner Murray (LF) - 60 day IL CWS Tanner Murray (LF) - 60 day IL CWS Tanner Murray (LF) - 60 day IL HOU Cristian Javier (P) - 15 day IL HOU Mike Burrows (P) - 60 day IL HOU Carlos Correa (SS) - 60 day IL HOU Carlos Correa (SS) - 60 day IL HOU Brice Matthews (CF) - 10 day IL HOU Brice Matthews (CF) - 10 day IL HOU Daulton Varsho (CF) - 10 day IL HOU Brice Matthews (CF) - 10 day IL HOU Brandon Walter (SP) - 60 day IL
Medium 9:00 PM CT
Full Analysis →
CHC

Chicago Chicago Cubs

SP: Matthew Boyd

5 - 4

AI Prediction

52.0%
SD

San Diego San Diego Padres

SP: Michael King

73°F Wind: 4 mph SSW Clear

The Cubs have the slight edge in the binding model and bring the hotter overall offense, while Petco Park and the marine layer should keep the scoring in a modest range. San Diego’s bullpen has been taxed recently, and both starters profile as playable but not dominant, which gives Chicago a path to enough late offense to edge it. What could go wrong is a strong Michael King outing at home, but the Cubs’ better run production and recent form make them the safer side.

Chicago’s stronger offense against a taxed Padres bullpen
CHC Phil Maton (P) - 60 day IL CHC Hunter Harvey (P) - 60 day IL CHC Porter Hodge (P) - 60 day IL CHC Riley Martin (P) - 60 day IL CHC Ben Brown (P) - 60 day IL CHC Cade Horton (P) - 60 day IL CHC Justin Steele (SP) - 60 day IL SD Casey Mize (P) - 15 day IL SD Lucas Giolito (P) - 60 day IL SD Luis Rengifo (LF) - 60 day IL SD Luis Rengifo (LF) - 60 day IL SD Ramón Laureano (LF) - 60 day IL SD Luis Rengifo (LF) - 60 day IL SD Luis Rengifo (LF) - 60 day IL
Medium 1:00 PM CT
Full Analysis →
PHI

Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies

SP: Jesús Luzardo

5 - 3

AI Prediction

52.0%
ATL

Atlanta Atlanta Braves

SP: Chris Sale

80°F Wind: 3 mph SE Clear

Philadelphia gets the edge in a close game because the model is slightly on the Phillies, and Atlanta’s bullpen appears more taxed than usual despite the stronger home record. Both starters project more like average arms than difference-makers, so the combination of recent form, road efficiency, and late-inning relief pressure points to a modest Phillies win in a game that stays around league-average scoring. What could go wrong is Atlanta’s home offense clicking early enough to force the Braves into a lead they can protect with their solid overall staff.

Atlanta bullpen fatigue
PHI Caleb Kilian (P) - 60 day IL PHI Brad Keller (P) - 60 day IL PHI Adolis García (RF) - 60 day IL ATL Hurston Waldrep (P) - 60 day IL ATL Martín Pérez (P) - 15 day IL ATL Spencer Strider (P) - 60 day IL ATL Reynaldo López (P) - 15 day IL ATL Joey Wentz (SP) - 60 day IL ATL Spencer Schwellenbach (SP) - 60 day IL

Full Slate

All games ranked by confidence

1 Medium
4:00 PM CT
CWS

Hagen Smith

5 - 3
53.0%
HOU

AJ Blubaugh

89°F Rain 18 IL Details →
2 Medium
9:00 PM CT
CHC

Matthew Boyd

5 - 4
52.0%
SD

Michael King

73°F Clear 14 IL Details →
3 Medium
1:00 PM CT
PHI

Jesús Luzardo

5 - 3
52.0%
ATL

Chris Sale

80°F Clear 9 IL Details →
4 Medium
7:00 PM CT
BOS

Payton Tolle

5 - 3
51.0%
NYY

Cam Schlittler

67°F Clouds 14 IL Details →

Weather Watch

Outdoor games with significant weather impact

CWS @ HOU 4:00 PM CT

Temperature

89°F

Wind

10 mph SE

Conditions

Rain

Rain Chance

96%

Weather Impact Score: 0.0

Injury Impact

Games most affected by IL absences

CWS @ HOU Impact: 0.0

CWS Injuries

Jordan Leasure P 60 day IL
Mike Vasil P 60 day IL
Prelander Berroa P 60 day IL
Luis Castillo P 15 day IL
Brooks Baldwin 2B 60 day IL
Brooks Baldwin 2B 60 day IL
Tanner Murray LF 60 day IL
Tanner Murray LF 60 day IL
Tanner Murray LF 60 day IL

HOU Injuries

Cristian Javier P 15 day IL
Mike Burrows P 60 day IL
Carlos Correa SS 60 day IL
Carlos Correa SS 60 day IL
Brice Matthews CF 10 day IL
Brice Matthews CF 10 day IL
Daulton Varsho CF 10 day IL
Brice Matthews CF 10 day IL
Brandon Walter SP 60 day IL
CHC @ SD Impact: 0.0

CHC Injuries

Phil Maton P 60 day IL
Hunter Harvey P 60 day IL
Porter Hodge P 60 day IL
Riley Martin P 60 day IL
Ben Brown P 60 day IL
Cade Horton P 60 day IL
Justin Steele SP 60 day IL

SD Injuries

Casey Mize P 15 day IL
Lucas Giolito P 60 day IL
Luis Rengifo LF 60 day IL
Luis Rengifo LF 60 day IL
Ramón Laureano LF 60 day IL
Luis Rengifo LF 60 day IL
Luis Rengifo LF 60 day IL
PHI @ ATL Impact: 0.0

PHI Injuries

Caleb Kilian P 60 day IL
Brad Keller P 60 day IL
Adolis García RF 60 day IL

ATL Injuries

Hurston Waldrep P 60 day IL
Martín Pérez P 15 day IL
Spencer Strider P 60 day IL
Reynaldo López P 15 day IL
Joey Wentz SP 60 day IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP 60 day IL
BOS @ NYY Impact: 0.0

BOS Injuries

Tyron Guerrero P 15 day IL
Johan Oviedo P 60 day IL
Eduardo Rivera P 60 day IL
Triston Casas 1B 60 day IL
Triston Casas 1B 60 day IL
Eli White CF 60 day IL
Eli White CF 60 day IL
Eli White CF 60 day IL
Mickey Gasper DH 10 day IL
Mickey Gasper DH 10 day IL
Kutter Crawford SP 60 day IL

NYY Injuries

Fernando Cruz P 60 day IL
Clarke Schmidt P 15 day IL
Kervin Castro P 60 day IL

Backfill Picks

Claude API key was down Apr 8–10 — these are retroactive picks for curiosity only

56/97

58% (leaked)

⚠ Temporally leaked: When generating these picks, Claude saw team stats, H2H, and last-10 data that include games played AFTER the target date. This is NOT a real accuracy signal — do not compare to live accuracy. Shown here so the dashboard has data to display for Apr 8–10.

✓
LAA 3 @ CIN 7
Apr 11

Pred: 4-6

75.0%

✓
TEX 3 @ LAD 6
Apr 11

Pred: 3-6

67.0%

✓
CWS 0 @ KC 2
Apr 11

Pred: 1-3

65.0%

✗
WSH 3 @ MIL 1
Apr 11

Pred: 3-5

63.0%

✗
CLE 6 @ ATL 0
Apr 11

Pred: 3-6

62.0%

✗
NYY 4 @ TB 5
Apr 11

Pred: 5-3

60.0%

✓
COL 5 @ SD 9
Apr 11

Pred: 3-5

60.0%

✗
OAK 11 @ NYM 6
Apr 11

Pred: 3-5

58.0%

✓
HOU 7 @ SEA 8
Apr 11

Pred: 3-5

58.0%

✓
MIA 1 @ DET 6
Apr 11

Pred: 3-5

55.0%

✗
BOS 7 @ STL 1
Apr 11

Pred: 3-5

55.0%

✓
SF 2 @ BAL 6
Apr 11

Pred: 3-5

52.0%

✓
MIN 7 @ TOR 4
Apr 11

Pred: 5-3

51.0%

✗
ARI 3 @ PHI 4
Apr 11

Pred: 5-3

49.0%

✓
PIT 4 @ CHC 3
Apr 11

Pred: 4-2

46.0%

✗
ARI 5 @ PHI 4
Apr 10

Pred: 3-5

75.0%

✓
TEX 7 @ LAD 8
Apr 10

Pred: 3-6

67.0%

✗
WSH 7 @ MIL 3
Apr 10

Pred: 3-5

65.0%

✓
CWS 0 @ KC 2
Apr 10

Pred: 1-3

64.0%

✓
CLE 5 @ ATL 11
Apr 10

Pred: 3-6

64.0%

✓
COL 2 @ SD 5
Apr 10

Pred: 2-5

61.0%

✓
MIN 4 @ TOR 10
Apr 10

Pred: 4-6

60.0%

✗
LAA 10 @ CIN 2
Apr 10

Pred: 4-6

59.0%

✗
OAK 4 @ NYM 0
Apr 10

Pred: 2-4

57.0%

✓
MIA 0 @ DET 2
Apr 10

Pred: 2-4

57.0%

✗
NYY 3 @ TB 5
Apr 10

Pred: 5-3

57.0%

✓
HOU 6 @ SEA 9
Apr 10

Pred: 3-5

56.0%

✗
SF 6 @ BAL 3
Apr 10

Pred: 3-5

55.0%

✓
BOS 2 @ STL 3
Apr 10

Pred: 2-4

55.0%

✓
PIT 2 @ CHC 0
Apr 10

Pred: 4-2

46.0%

✗
OAK 1 @ NYY 0
Apr 9

Pred: 2-4

66.0%

✗
COL 3 @ SD 7
Apr 9

Pred: 5-3

65.0%

✗
CWS 2 @ KC 0
Apr 9

Pred: 3-5

64.0%

✓
CIN 1 @ MIA 8
Apr 9

Pred: 3-5

62.0%

✗
ARI 7 @ NYM 1
Apr 9

Pred: 2-4

59.0%

✓
DET 1 @ MIN 3
Apr 9

Pred: 3-5

50.0%

✗
OAK 3 @ NYY 2
Apr 8

Pred: 3-5

66.0%

✗
LAD 3 @ TOR 4
Apr 8

Pred: 5-3

65.0%

✓
ATL 8 @ LAA 2
Apr 8

Pred: 7-3

59.0%

✗
SD 8 @ PIT 2
Apr 8

Pred: 3-5

58.0%

✓
BAL 5 @ CWS 3
Apr 8

Pred: 5-3

57.0%

✓
CHC 6 @ TB 2
Apr 8

Pred: 6-3

57.0%

✗
ARI 7 @ NYM 2
Apr 8

Pred: 3-4

56.0%

✓
KC 2 @ CLE 10
Apr 8

Pred: 3-5

53.0%

✗
MIL 0 @ BOS 5
Apr 8

Pred: 5-3

53.0%

✓
SEA 0 @ TEX 3
Apr 8

Pred: 2-4

53.0%

✓
HOU 1 @ COL 9
Apr 8

Pred: 5-7

50.0%

✓
PHI 0 @ SF 5
Apr 8

Pred: 2-4

50.0%

✓
CIN 4 @ MIA 7
Apr 8

Pred: 3-5

50.0%

✗
STL 6 @ WSH 1
Apr 8

Pred: 4-5

49.0%

✓
DET 6 @ MIN 8
Apr 8

Pred: 3-5

48.0%

✗
KC 4 @ ATL 1
Mar 29

Pred: 3-6

75.0%

✓
PIT 4 @ NYM 3
Mar 29

Pred: 5-3

69.0%

✓
BOS 2 @ CIN 3
Mar 29

Pred: 3-5

68.0%

✗
WSH 6 @ CHC 3
Mar 29

Pred: 3-6

68.0%

✓
TEX 8 @ PHI 3
Mar 29

Pred: 6-3

66.0%

✓
CWS 7 @ MIL 9
Mar 29

Pred: 4-6

65.0%

✓
COL 3 @ MIA 4
Mar 29

Pred: 3-5

61.0%

✗
LAA 7 @ HOU 9
Mar 29

Pred: 6-4

56.0%

✓
TB 11 @ STL 7
Mar 29

Pred: 6-4

54.0%

✗
OAK 2 @ TOR 5
Mar 29

Pred: 6-4

54.0%

✓
CLE 0 @ SEA 8
Mar 29

Pred: 3-5

54.0%

✓
MIN 6 @ BAL 8
Mar 29

Pred: 3-5

51.0%

✓
KC 2 @ ATL 6
Mar 28

Pred: 3-6

75.0%

✓
ARI 2 @ LAD 3
Mar 28

Pred: 2-5

72.0%

✗
PIT 2 @ NYM 4
Mar 28

Pred: 5-3

69.0%

✓
BOS 5 @ CIN 6
Mar 28

Pred: 3-6

68.0%

✓
NYY 3 @ SF 1
Mar 28

Pred: 5-2

68.0%

✓
WSH 2 @ CHC 10
Mar 28

Pred: 3-6

68.0%

✓
TEX 5 @ PHI 4
Mar 28

Pred: 6-3

66.0%

✓
CWS 1 @ MIL 6
Mar 28

Pred: 3-5

65.0%

✓
DET 0 @ SD 3
Mar 28

Pred: 3-5

63.0%

✓
COL 3 @ MIA 4
Mar 28

Pred: 2-4

61.0%

✗
LAA 9 @ HOU 11
Mar 28

Pred: 7-5

56.0%

✗
TB 5 @ STL 6
Mar 28

Pred: 6-4

54.0%

✗
OAK 7 @ TOR 8
Mar 28

Pred: 5-3

54.0%

✗
CLE 6 @ SEA 5
Mar 28

Pred: 3-5

54.0%

✗
MIN 4 @ BAL 1
Mar 28

Pred: 3-5

51.0%

✓
KC 0 @ ATL 6
Mar 27

Pred: 3-6

75.0%

✓
ARI 4 @ LAD 5
Mar 27

Pred: 3-5

72.0%

✓
NYY 3 @ SF 0
Mar 27

Pred: 5-2

68.0%

✗
DET 5 @ SD 2
Mar 27

Pred: 2-4

63.0%

✓
COL 1 @ MIA 2
Mar 27

Pred: 3-5

61.0%

✓
LAA 6 @ HOU 2
Mar 27

Pred: 6-4

56.0%

✗
OAK 2 @ TOR 3
Mar 27

Pred: 5-3

54.0%

✓
CLE 1 @ SEA 5
Mar 27

Pred: 3-5

54.0%

✓
ARI 2 @ LAD 8
Mar 26

Pred: 2-5

72.0%

✗
PIT 7 @ NYM 11
Mar 26

Pred: 5-3

69.0%

✗
WSH 10 @ CHC 4
Mar 26

Pred: 3-6

68.0%

✗
BOS 3 @ CIN 0
Mar 26

Pred: 3-6

68.0%

✗
TEX 3 @ PHI 5
Mar 26

Pred: 6-3

66.0%

✓
CWS 2 @ MIL 14
Mar 26

Pred: 3-6

65.0%

✗
DET 8 @ SD 2
Mar 26

Pred: 3-5

63.0%

✓
LAA 3 @ HOU 0
Mar 26

Pred: 5-3

56.0%

✗
CLE 6 @ SEA 4
Mar 26

Pred: 3-5

54.0%

✗
TB 7 @ STL 9
Mar 26

Pred: 6-4

54.0%

✓
MIN 1 @ BAL 2
Mar 26

Pred: 3-5

51.0%