Washington holds a significant ELO advantage (1518.95 vs 1454.07, implying 62.5% home win probability) and carries better momentum with a W2 streak and a strong 6-4 last 10 games, while Baltimore is severely depleted by injuries (Mountcastle, Holliday, Westburg, Beavers, Kjerstad all out) and Shane Baz has surrendered 5 ER in each of his last two starts. The Nationals' offense averaging 5.70 runs in their last 10 games should exploit a struggling Baz and Baltimore's taxed bullpen, even though Washington's own bullpen is at critical stress levels.